The COVID-19 pandemic has claimed a huge toll nearing three hundred thousand persons and infected                                                                                                                                                                                      more than a million globally. 

This tends to spread exponentially if left undetected and spreads through human-to-human transmission. Although its fatality in COVID-19 is low, the percentage of fatality, however, is noticeably higher amongst the senior citizens. Measures like ‘lockdown’, ‘social distancing’ and a few other simple precautions are known to have an impact on its rate of spread but the first two measures also leave a negative impact on the local economy. Experts have also been cautioning about a second wave of infection. Several drugs are on trial, but no vaccine or medicine has yet been identified.

This piece proposes to generally discuss the history evolution of COVID-19 since the last part of the previous year and share a few observations on the basis on open source material. The narrative begins in the city of Wuhan in Hubei province of China.

Mainland China Confirmed cases of COVID-19 per 100,000 inhabitants by province, as of 13 April

The chain of events eventually leading to COVID-19 Pandemic  began with the first case of unconfirmed  Coronavirus case occurring in China as early as 17 November 2019 and definitely by first week of December 2019 when China became acutely aware of its potential danger of emerging as a global pandemic. The following graph shows incidence of new cases and deaths in China between the start and lifting of ‘lockdown’ in China.

Semi-log graph of new cases and deaths in China during the COVID-19 epidemic showing the lockdown and lifting is an emergency speciality field hospital built in response to the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic. A temporary hospital for treating mild cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, one of more than 10 such hospitals in the city. The first confirmed case of COVID-19 has been traced back to 1 December 2019 in Wuhan. (One unconfirmed report suggests the earliest case was on 17 November.) Doctor Zhang Jixian observed a cluster of pneumonia cases of unknown cause on 26 December, upon which her hospital informed Wuhan Jianghan CDC on 27 December. Initial genetic testing of patient samples on 27 December 2019 indicated the presence of a SARS-like coronavirus. A public notice was released by Wuhan Municipal Health Commission on 31 December. The WHO was also informed the same day. As these notifications occurred, doctors in Wuhan were warned by the police for "spreading rumours" about the outbreak. The Chinese National Health Commission initially claimed there was no "clear evidence" of human-to-human transmission.

On 20 January, the Chinese National Health Commission announced that human-to-human transmission of the coronavirus had already occurred.  During the Chinese New Year travel period in late January, Chinese authorities instigated a lockdown of the City of Wuhan.  However, travellers from Wuhan had already transported the virus to some Asian countries, the Chinese government launched a radical campaign described on 10 February by the Chinese Communist Party general secretary Xi Jinping as a "people's war" to contain the spread of the virus. In what has been described as "the largest quarantine in human history", a cordon sanitaire was announced on 23 January stopping travel in and out of Wuhan, which was extended to a total of 15 cities in Hubei, affecting a total of about 57 million people. Private vehicle use was banned in the city. Chinese New Year (25 January) celebrations were cancelled in many places. The authorities also announced the construction of a temporary hospital, Huoshenshan Hospital, which was completed in 10 days. Another hospital, Leishenshan Hospital, was built afterwards to handle additional patients. In addition to newly constructed hospitals, China also converted 14 other facilities in Wuhan, such as convention centres and stadiums, into temporary hospitals.

On 26 January, the government instituted further measures to contain the COVID-19 outbreak, including issuing health declarations for travellers and extending the Spring Festival holiday. Universities and schools around the country were also closed. The regions of Hong Kong and Macau instituted several measures, particularly about schools and universities. Remote working measures were instituted in several Chinese regions. Travel restrictions were enacted in and outside of Hubei. Public transport was modified, and museums throughout China were temporarily closed. Control of public movement was applied in many cities, and it has been estimated that 760 million people (more than half the population) faced some form of outdoor restriction. In January and February 2020, during the height of the epidemic in Wuhan, about 5 million people lost their jobs. Many of China's nearly 300 million rural migrant workers have been stranded at home in inland provinces or trapped in Hubei province.

After the outbreak entered its global phase in March, Chinese authorities took strict measures to prevent the virus re-entering China from other countries. For example, Beijing imposed a 14-day mandatory quarantine for all international travellers entering the city. At the same time, a strong anti-foreigner sentiment quickly took hold, and foreigners experienced harassment by the general public and forced evictions from apartments and hotels.

On 23 March, mainland China had only one case transmitted domestically in the five days prior, in this instance via a traveller returning to Guangzhou from Istanbul. On 24 March 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reported that the spread of domestically transmitted cases has been basically blocked and the outbreak has been controlled in China. The same day travel restrictions were eased in Hubei, apart from Wuhan, two months after the lockdown was imposed.

The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced on 26 March 2020 that entry for visa or residence permit holders would be suspended from 28 March onwards, with no specific details on when this policy would end. Those wishing to enter China must apply for visas in Chinese embassies or consulates. The Chinese government encouraged businesses and factories to re-open on 30 March and provided monetary stimulus packages for firms.

The State Council declared a day of mourning to begin with a national three-minute moment of silence on 4 April, coinciding with Qingming Festival, although the central government asked families to pay their respects online in observance of physical distancing to avoid a renewed COVID-19 outbreak.

Duration

The WHO asserts that the pandemic can be controlled though its peak and ultimate duration (of the outbreak) are uncertain and may differ. Maciej Boni of Penn State University stated, "Left unchecked, infectious outbreaks typically plateau and then start to decline when the disease runs out of available hosts. But it's almost impossible to make any sensible projection right now about when that will be". The Chinese government's senior medical adviser Zhong Nanshan argued that "it could be over by June" if all countries can be mobilised to follow the WHO's advice on measures to stop the spread of the virus. On 17 March, Adam Kucharski of the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine said SARS-CoV-2 "is going to be circulating, potentially for a year or two". According to the Imperial College study led by Neil Ferguson     physical distancing and other measures will be required "until a vaccine becomes available (potentially 18 months or more)". William Schaffner of Vanderbilt University stated, "I think it's unlikely that this coronavirus – because it's so readily transmissible – will disappear completely" and it "might turn into a seasonal disease, making a comeback every year". The virulence of the comeback would depend on herd immunity and the extent of mutation.

Xenophobia and racism

Since the outbreak of COVID-19, heightened prejudice, xenophobia, and racism have been noted toward people of Chinese and East Asian descent, and against people from hotspots in Europe, the United States and other countries. Incidents of fear, suspicion, and hostility have been observed in many countries, particularly in Europe, East Asia, North America, and the Asia-Pacific region. Reports from February (when most of the cases had still been confined to China) documented racist sentiments expressed in various groups worldwide about Chinese people deserving the virus, or it being justified retribution. Some countries in Africa have also seen a rise in anti-Chinese sentiment. Many residents of Wuhan and Hubei have reported discrimination based on their regional origin. There has been support for the Chinese, both on and offline, and towards those in virus-stricken areas. Following the progression of the outbreak to new hotspot countries, people from Italy, the first country in Europe to experience a serious outbreak of COVID-19, were also subjected to suspicion and xenophobia.

Citizens in countries including Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, and South Korea initially signed petitions lobbying to ban Chinese people from entering their countries to stop the disease. In Japan, the hashtag # Chinese Don’t Come To Japan trended, on Twitter. Chinese people as well as other Asians in the United Kingdom and the United States have reported increasing levels of racist abuse and assaults. U.S. president Donald Trump has been criticised for referring to the coronavirus as the "Chinese Virus", which critics say is racist and anti-Chinese. Protesters in Ukraine attacked buses carrying Ukrainian and foreign evacuees from Wuhan to Novi Sanzhary. Discrimination against Muslims in India escalated after public health authorities identified an Islamic missionary group's large gathering in New Delhi in early March 2020 as a source of coronavirus contagion. A number of hotels and guesthouses in Vietnam have hung signs on their doors saying Chinese guests are not welcome and many Vietnamese have demanded the closure of all border crossings with China."

In China, xenophobia and racism against non-Chinese residents has been inflamed by the pandemic, with foreigners described as "foreign garbage" and targeted for "disposal". Some black people were evicted from their homes by Chinese police and given 24 hours to leave the country, with no place to sleep, due to misconceptions and disinformation that they and other foreigners were spreading the virus. Chinese racism and xenophobia directed towards them during the outbreak received a strong response from foreign governments and diplomatic corps and resulted in apologies from China for discriminatory practices such as for restaurants excluding black customers. Despite this, accusations of harassment, discrimination and eviction of black people in China continued, as they described "No blacks" signs, essentials like water being turned off, and being forcibly moved into hotels by police.

            China denied and hid from the world about COVID-19 spread in China and did not accept the presence of the same when a Chinese doctor Scientist published a report and the implications therein.  The earliest known person with symptoms was later discovered to have fallen ill on 1 December 2019, and that person did not have visible connections with the later wet market cluster.

            On 23 March, mainland China had only one case transmitted domestically in the five days prior, in this instance via a traveller returning to Guangzhou from Istanbul. On 24 March 2020, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang reported that the spread of domestically transmitted cases has been blocked and the outbreak has been controlled in China. Globally, the pandemic started in S Korea on 20 Jan 2020, Iran on 19 February, UK by 18 March, US by 26 Jan, S. America 26 Feb, Italy and Spain by 31 January and so on.

By the time, COVID-19 Pandemic had hit the rest of the world, China had declared itself to have become free of the same. China had assessed well by then the medical and manufacturing infrastructure that would be required to be mobilised to make a business venture to supply materials needed to encounter the Global Pandemic need in terms of face masks, ventilators, diagnostic kits etc. short of a vaccine. China had managed to assess and premanufacture materials needed by the rest of the world to face the COVID-19 Pandemic. This assessment and capability development were almost ruthlessly calculated – as if almost like recovering the cost of domestic pandemic management.

China started opening domestic flights after 3 March, the international flights as well as road communication system. All this after China had between December 2019 and 26 March had controlled public movement in many cities, and it has been estimated that 760 million people (more than half the population) faced some form of outdoor restriction. In January and February 2020, during the height of the epidemic in Wuhan, about 5 million people lost their jobs. Many of China's nearly 300 million rural migrant workers have been stranded at home in inland provinces or trapped in Hubei province.

            China appears to have successfully created a diplomatic space in the post COVID-19 world order. However, China has demonstrated grave error of intent towards the rest of the world by first systematically denying that she had a very large biological weapons program which may have gone astray and contributed towards the spread of Coronavirus as a man-made disaster(though no concrete evidence is yet available as it is still being investigated), and hiding the fact initially that COVID-19 is highly contagious and susceptible to human to human transmission. China has also demonstrated that while they have enormous financial resources yet lack the credibility of being a responsible global power.

            India has entered ‘Lockdown 3.0 ‘till 17th May,2020 with a graded application of the restrictions. The pandemic (COVID -19) should be regarded as an early warning for India in order to understand such contingencies and prepare a detailed national perspective plan for the country by incorporating all possible scenarios. Controlling the aftereffects of pandemics related restrictions and its aftermath should not be a mere law and order related development. Any effective strategy for mitigation would require to carefully involve a deeper understanding of social psychology, cultural underpinnings and above all a nuanced approach/ mechanism.