INTRODUCTION

The revocation of Special status and bifurcation into two Union Territories of the erstwhile state of Jammu and Kashmir on 5th August 2019 has completed one year. A decision of such historic import, even when well-intended, taken against the will of a section of people, required proactive political and administrative outreach to convince the citizens of Kashmir in particular to accept the new reality. There would have been protests. The protests could well have gone out of control. The Government chose to impose strict restrictions, detained even mainstream political leaders and gave a free hand to security forces. While the security situation has been kept under control, heavy footprints of uniformed forces, in the absence of political and administrative outreach, have generated hatred and hostility. A temporary lull in militancy, attributable to strict restrictions after abrogation of special status has begun to be breached. Fresh recruitments of local youth to militant cadres was already on a steady increase from 16 in 2013; 53 in 2014; 66 in 2015; 88 in 2016; 126 in 2017; 218 in 2018; to 139 in 2019. This trend was temporarily halted by the lockdown and strict restrictions post August 2019 changes. In a series of well directed operations, more than one hundred and thirty seven terrorists have been neutralized by the security forces during the current year. The slain terrorists include 38 of the 79 local youth who joined terrorist ranks in the recent past1. This is indicative of a fresh surge in militant ranks, albeit not yet at an alarming rate, induced by a narrative of hatred against India. There are signs of seething anger, suppressed defiance and increased resilience. Kashmir valley, already reeling under trust deficit since 2015, is showing signs of a fresh upsurge in home grown militancy which will provide Pakistan with another opportunity to step up its nefarious activities.

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Background

The Constitutional changes disturb the status quo

A year ago, Government of India in a sudden, swift and decisive move abrogated the special status and reorganized the erstwhile state Of Jammu and Kashmir. The Government had worked around a widely nursed perception that the special status disallowed effective tackling of the three decade long Pakistan sponsored insurgency and separatist movement. The Government was compelled to decide in favour of a more ‘aggressive policy’ as neither Pakistan nor the separatists were willing to create an atmosphere conducive for talks. The constitutional changes also fulfilled the ruling party’s long professed ideology of “Ek Vidhan Ek Samwidhaan” 2 and commitment made in its 2019 Lok Sabha Election Manifesto of a “decisive action and a firm policy” to achieve peace, abrogate Art 370 and annul Art 35 A. The last one of these was described as discriminatory against the non-permanent  residents and women as well as an obstacle to the development of the state.