The stunning takeover of power in Afghanistan by Taliban and hasty retreat of the US have serious portends of new geopolitical dangers and security concerns. Looking into the emerging securityconcerns of India, certain issues which may serve as a warning signal are ideology, renewed strength of Taliban, a new vigour of the Pakistan Army/ ISI, morale of the jihadi extremist forces in the region and present status of India in the emerging geopolitical alliance.These issues are matters of concern from the security perspectives for India in general and Kashmir in particular. 

Enhanced Fire-power of Taliban:

The strategy and planning of the Taliban, possibly with tacit support of its allies, and its high morale can be judged from the fact that over three hundred thousand personnel of Afghan army trained by USA at the cost of nearly eighty-three billion dollars virtually capitulated to one fourth of this size of Taliban forces providing a walk over to the Taliban troops. What may be a matter for greater concern is that after regaining power in Afghanistan, there has been a manifold increase in arms holding of the trigger-happy Taliban forces. In their haste to leave, the personnel of US and Afghan army left their armoury with huge stockpile of arms, ammunitions and equipment besides armoured vehicles and aircrafts, both fixed wings and helicopters etc. which have added immensely to the fire power of Taliban.

 Renewed Motivation of Pak ISI:

 In this entire episode, Pakistan has been a big gainer and a security concern for India. Pakistan has maintained its nexus with Taliban all along and their return to power in Afghanistan is a matter of great rejoice for Pakistan. It may provide a  renewed motivation to Pakistan, particularly its Army backed up by ISI to achieve its long-standing, cherished desire to settle the score of humiliating surrender in 1971 by ensuring dismemberment of Kashmir from India to redeem its ego. Significantly, the mindset of Pakistani Army has undergone a major change over in past. Gen. Zial ul Haque paved the way of Islamization of a major chunk of Pakistani Army in 1980s. The developments in Afghanistan may, in all  possibilities, lead to Talibanisation of a section of Pakistani Army. 

 New geopolitical alliance : 

 In the context of geopolitical alliance, Pakistan is apparently far better placed than India at the present juncture taking into account its continued close nexus with Taliban over the years. In this new  geopolitical alliance with the Taliban government in Afghanistan, Pakistan, China, Russia and Turkey are providing supportive role. In this context, the statement from Beijing (Aug 16) welcoming the opportunity to deepen its ties with Afghanistan, Russia’s assertion that it would engage comprehensively with the Taliban government and Turkey’s deal with Taliban to facilitate its ascendancy to power in Afghanistan should be a matter of serious concern from a security angle for India in the light of its close alliance with US in recent years as a strategic challenge to China. 

A series of events like the Korean war in 1950s, Vietnam war in 1960s and the recent Afghanistan episode have confirmed that USA cannot be trusted to extend its support to any ally to a logical conclusion as its policy is primarily governed by its national interest. As such, under the current circumstances India stands virtually marginalized and is left to fend for itself against any aggressive covert or overt onslaught of this powerful alliance.

A major impetus to 'jihadi' extremist forces:

Looking at the current situation and likely future scenario from the security perspectives  in Kashmir, a disconcerting fall out of the Taliban’s ascendancy to power in Afghanistan would be a major impetus to all the jihadi extremist forces in the region. In this victory of jihadi  ideology against democratic forces, Taliban led Afghanistan will once again become a haven for like-minded jihadi extremist elements namely, Al Qaeda, Lashkar- e- Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed and Jamat-e-Islami etc. Pakistan may fully exploit this opportunity to work with these jihadi extremist forces in tandem with Taliban a with a call for a major push to liberate the Muslim majority region of Kashmir from the clutches of ‘infidels’ in India.

Likely Strategy of Pakistan:

Conscious of its fear of FATF, Pakistan may try to pursue this plan with utmost care to ensure its complete deniability. It may try to replicate a well-planned operational strategy shrouded under complete secrecy as was  done by Taliban in the current  Afghan episode.

Taliban took care to ensure no repetition of the lapses of 1990s, like leaving a gap in the northern region which provided a support base for the USA with the Northern Alliance. On the same lines, Pak ISI may use its propensity to identify the loopholes to penetrate the security gaps in Kashmir. They may try to stealthily enhance the number of its ‘sleeper cells’ with adequate motivation, finances and firepower. At the same time, they may also try to use the services of pro-Pak, pro-independence, anti-India elements and its other agent provocateurs in Kashmir by exploiting their strong undercurrent of resentment following abrogation of Art 370 and down gradation of the state to UTs. They may also try to create a situation of anarchy to destabilize any democratic process by targeted killing of leaders of prominent political parties, elected representatives of DDC and Panchayats, besides the personnel of security forces.

Efforts will be to create a mass upsurge as was there in early 1990s with total demoralisation of personnel of Kashmir Police. Significantly, J&K Police was later fully activated and over the last few years have done commendable work in dealing with the situation in Kashmir. However, with the ongoing counter-terrorism operations in the last three decades fatigue factor is gradually creeping in among the personnel of J&K Police. Added to it is the targeted killings of police personnel which may be more in number aimed at ensuring demoralisation of the local police.

Prognosis:

In this backdrop, outlook for the situation in Kashmir looks grim and it will call for requisite counter measures with adequate planning to thwart any design of Pak ISI supported by jehadi elements in the valley. The security forces, which are already doing commendable work need to be sensitised about the likely threat emanating from the nexus between radical faction of Taliban and Pak Army/ISI. In this ongoing fight against terrorism morale of the state police is very important. Requisite steps to sustain high level of morale of the J&K Police would be very important. Equally important at the present juncture will be a pro-active political process to provide healing touch to the hurt feelings of people following down gradation of the state to UT. It may be prudent to fulfill the promise made in the Parliament two years ago regarding restoration of the statehood. This gesture may go a long way in assuaging the hurt feelings of a sizable section of people in both the UTs of Jammu & Kashmir. As far as political outreach is concerned the PM’s meeting with 14 leaders of J&K in June this year was an important step forward. Another follow-up meeting of the same will send a positive signal about the sincerity of the central leadership towards the well-being of the people in J&K .In this meeting in June, PM had mentioned about the need of involving the “youth to provide political leadership in J&K and ensuring that their aspirations are duly fulfilled”. Some visible action on the ground on this suggestion of the PM would convey a positive message to the youth elements, who have otherwise a propensity to get allured by the jihadi forces.